Opinio Juris

A weblog dedicated to reports, commentary, and debate on current developments and scholarship
in the fields of international law and politics

Monday, May 5, 2008

Are Evolving Standards of Decency a One-Way Ratchet?
One of the more intriguing questions from the oral argument in the child rape death penalty case of Kennedy v. Louisiana is whether evolving standards of decency are a one-way ratchet. Here is Justice Stevens' question from the oral argument last month:


[O]ne question that interests me but is a little divorced from the terms of the arguments so far. I know it is not popular to refer to refer to international commentary on issues like this, but the English law lords have filed an amicus brief discussing the international principle that nations that retain the death penalty may not extend the death penalty to crimes to which it does not presently apply. They suggest that as a matter of international law, there's sort of a correspondence to our evolving standards of decency that have generally governed our Eighth Amendment jurisprudence. It's kind of a one-way rachet, we look at trends in one direction but we don't look to see if you suddenly have changed gears and go in the other direction. Could you just comment on that argument?... I just use[] that as an analogy to our evolving standards of decency cases which has been part of our Eighth Amendment jurisprudence, that sort of is a — one way direction in which these cases go. Do you think it's appropriate — are you aware of any case saying we can turn around and go in another direction?

The amicus brief of British Law Lords referenced by Justice Stevens summarizes the one-way ratchet argument succinctly:

International authorities have long agreed that nations that retain the death penalty must refrain from expanding the death penalty to crimes to which it currenlty does not apply--a principle that has been codified in a regional convention and reaffirmed by the jurisprudence of human rights bodies. There is an equally strong global consensus that nations should gradually narrow the categories of offenses for which the death penalty may be imposed.

It is an interesting idea. Note that the role of comparative and international law is not with respect to the content of a particular substantive right but rather the methodology by which standards should evolve. The question posed is not what other countries do with respect to child rape and the death penalty, but rather whether other countries allow for the expansion of the death penalty. Justice Stevens is suggesting that perhaps a living constitution should evolve in the same manner that international law evolves, with the death penalty moving in only one direction toward abolition.

The apparent concern that animates Justice Stevens' question is that the national consensus may be trending toward allowing the death penalty for child rape. If the national consensus is evolving toward a conclusion that this punishment is not cruel and unusual, on what basis can Justice Stevens limit the use of that evolving standard? I seriously doubt that the Court will rely on international or comparative law to embrace a one-way ratchet, but it is worth discussing whether our own jurisprudence would allow for such a limit on the evolving standards of decency.

Thursday, May 1, 2008

Fine Hiking (Never Mind the Troop Movements)
I'll strike this up to strange timing. On the same day of reports of increasing tensions between Russia and Georgia, including Russian troop movements along the Russian/Georgian border and an increase of Russian forces in the Georgian breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, CNN runs a piece on... wait for it... the joys of hiking along the Russian/Georgian border. Huh?

Anyway, I guess if you are not enticed by the descriptions of "snow-swept crags straining up into the rush of clouds" or intrigued by the stories of dining on boiled sheep's fat, then maybe the whole cross-border conflict and geopolitical tensions thing might interest you.

The CNN piece does contain these "tips," by the way:
Russia's North Caucasus is a volatile, corrupt and mind-boggling place, a mix of mindsets that is one part holdover Soviet bureaucracy, one part clan-driven, xenophobic distrust, one part anti-terrorist police policies. The rewards are immense if you have a thick skin, willingness to grease a palm or two, and the patience to weather capricious bureaucracy.
Yeah, and don't forget the armies on the move.

Somebody call Robert Young Pelton.


Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Is "Lesbian" a Geographic Appellation?
Now here is a great legal question regarding geographic appellations: Is the term "lesbian" something that the residents of Lesbos, Greece have a legal entitlement to prevent others from misusing? The Associate Press has the story:


A Greek court has been asked to draw the line between the natives of the Aegean Sea island of Lesbos and the world's gay women. Three islanders from Lesbos - home of the ancient poet Sappho, who praised love between women - have taken a gay rights group to court for using the word lesbian in its name. One of the plaintiffs said Wednesday that the name of the association, Homosexual and Lesbian Community of Greece, "insults the identity" of the people of Lesbos, who are also known as Lesbians. "My sister can't say she is a Lesbian," said Dimitris Lambrou. "Our geographical designation has been usurped by certain ladies who have no connection whatsoever with Lesbos," he said. The three plaintiffs are seeking to have the group barred from using "lesbian" in its name and filed a lawsuit on April 10.... The Homosexual and Lesbian Community of Greece could not be reached for comment.

Of course, rules regarding geographic appellation are extremely important in the international trade context. Such rules resolve questions like what glass of bubbly can be called "Champagne" and what mustard merits the label "Dijon"? But I'm not aware of a similar claim that rules on geographic appellation can be used to prevent a social or political group from usurping the label. (HT: How Appealing).


Friday, April 25, 2008

Map Art
Here is a sample of some of the wonderful map art of Susan Stockwell:

Fleece England...



Rubber Africa...



Coffee Filter South America...



Tea bag China...


Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Oral Argument in Heller and the English Roots of the Second Amendment
As expected, during today's Supreme Court oral argument in District of Columbia v. Heller there was no discussion whatsoever of comparative analysis of gun control laws in other countries or comparative death rates. To the extent there was any discussion of foreign authority, it was all about English history as an interpretive device for understanding the Second Amendment.

Here are the six key exchanges on that topic:




Comparative Death Rates and the Second Amendment
The final group of amicus briefs I would like to highlight compares the firearm death rates in different countries to argue for and against gun control. An amicus brief by the American Academy of Pediatrics, et. al. offers an interesting comparative analysis of the firearm death rates in the Untied States and other democratic nations.

The firearms death rate in the United States far surpasses that of other democratic nations. A 1997 study analyzing firearms deaths for children aged 14 or under in 26 industrialized countries found that 86 percent of all deaths occurred in the United States. The rate for firearms homicide alone was 16 times higher in the United States, while the firearms suicide rate was 11 times higher and the firearms unintentional death rate was nine times higher.

In 1995, the firearms death rate in the United States was 13.7 per 100,000. In comparison, the firearms death rates in countries that severely limit access to handguns were significantly lower. For example, in 1995, Canada had a firearms death rate of 3.9 per 100,000; Australia had a rate of 2.9 per 100,000; and England and Wales had rates of 0.4 per 100,000. One of the most glaring distinctions between these countries and the United States is the significantly lower incidents of lethal violence caused by handguns.

Another amicus brief filed by Professors of Criminal Justice makes similar comparisons:

Criminological research has established that the high rate of handgun homicides in the United *7 States is due, at least in part, to the high rate of handgun ownership in the United States. The rate of handgun ownership and the rate of handgun homicides in the United States, when compared to the same data from other countries, illustrate the strong correlation between the availability of handguns and the incidence of handgun homicides.... [T]he United States experiences about four times the level of handgun homicides per 100,000 people than Israel, Sweden, Canada, Australia, and Great Britain combined.

But these arguments did not go unchallenged. The Association of American Physicians and Surgeons argued in an amicus brief that:

The use of handguns in suicide in no way proves that an alternative method would not be used if handguns were unavailable. In fact, the evidence is to the contrary. Japan, Hungary, and Scandinavia all have far more restrictive gun control than the United States, and yet they have suicide rates 2 to 3 times higher than the U.S. For example, the suicide rate in Hungary is 35.38 per 100,000, compared to only 12.06 per 100,000 in the United States.

The AAP Brief relies on a country-by-country comparison in arguing that the firearm related death rate in the United States was much higher in 1995 in the United States than in Canada, Australia, and England and Wales, all of which have restrictive gun control. AAP Brief at 25. But the data for gun deaths in the United States include guns used in self-defense, as in fending off an assault, robbery or rape, and higher homicide rates in the United States existed long before there was gun control in other countries….

Different societies have different confounding factors, such as crime-inducing drug addiction, single-parent families, promotion of violence in the media, and varying approaches to juvenile delinquency and schooling, all of which inevitably affect crime rates. Those confounding factors are best eliminated by looking at the effect of gun control on the same society, and as shown below, gun control typically results in an increase in overall crime rather than a reduction. Gun control is hardly supported if murders by switchblades increase as death by firearms declines.

Another amicus brief filed by Criminologists, Social Scientists, [and] Other Distinguished Scholars also challenged the connection between death rates and gun possession:

The evidence from foreign jurisdictions leads to the same conclusion as the United States data. In general, comparison of “homicide and suicide mortality data for thirty-six nations (including the United States) for the period 1990-1995” to gunstock levels shows “no significant (at the 5% level) association between gun ownership and the total homicide rate.” Additionally, in a 2001 European study of 21 nations' data, “no significant correlations [of gunstock levels] with total suicide or homicide rates were found.”…

A 2007 study compared gun ownership and murder in every European nation on which the data could be found. Again, nations with more guns did not exhibit higher murder rates. Indeed, the tendency is generally the opposite: murder rates for the seven nations having 16,000+ guns average out to 1.2 per 100,000 population while the murder rates for the nine nations having just 5,000 or fewer guns is well over three times higher, at 4.4 per 100,000. These national comparisons suggest that the determinants of murder are factors such as basic socio-economic and cultural factors, and not the mere availability of guns. Leading gun control advocates have admitted that “Israel and Switzerland [have] rates of homicide [that] are low despite rates of home firearm ownership that are at least as high as those noted in the U.S.” To the same effect, within Canada, “England, America and Switzerland, [the areas] with the highest rates of gun ownership are in fact those with the lowest rates of violence.”

To the extend the Supreme Court attempts to digest this information, I would expect this comparative analysis will be useful in assessing whether the District of Columbia had a proper basis for restricting gun possession. These sort of briefs offer pragmatic arguments for justifying government restrictions on individual liberties. As I have argued here, "the Court frequently has relied on foreign authority to curtail, not expand individual liberties. The United States Reports are replete with instances in which the Court has relied on foreign experiences to uphold the constitutionality of government action that limits individual rights."

Monday, March 17, 2008

International Law and The Second Amendment
As we all know, this week the Court will hear what is arguably the most important case of the year, District of Columbia v. Heller. In Heller, the District of Columbia has presented comparative analysis of the practice of other countries in support of its gun control restrictions. Not surprisingly, this has led to several amicus briefs responding to the argument.

I will highlight some of the other briefs later, but today I wanted to emphasize a very interesting amicus brief by a group of international scholars from Australia, Belgium, Canada, England, France, Germany, Italy, Denmark and Portugal challenging the District of Columbia’s assertions. Here is a taste:


In the Petition for Writ of Certiorari, Petitioners represent that other nations have reached the same conclusion concerning handguns as they have. “[M]ost industrialized countries strictly control civilian access to handguns and allow the carrying of handguns for personal protection only under very restrictive conditions …” Petitioners repeat this assertion in their merits brief where they state: “Many cities, states, and nations regulate or ban handguns based on the unique dangers of those deadly weapons.” Contrary to this assertion, most foreign gun laws in democratic nations are not nearly as restrictive as those found in Washington D.C., where private individuals are burdened by an outright ban of all functional firearms in their homes.


Much of the brief focuses on country-by-country comparisons. But it also has some fascinating historical analysis of international law (citations and footnotes omitted):


Some of the earliest works on the subject of International Law were by fourteenth century Milanese scholar Giovanni da Legnano, whose work, De Bello, De Represealiis et de Duello was one of the first attempts to establish international rules for warfare. Legnano's treatise closely examined the individual right of self-defense as the basis of establishing a derivative right of a nation to engage in war. Legnano believed that, “self-defense proceeds from natural law, and not from positive law, civil or canon.” Self-defense was not an artificial construct of positive law, but instead was an inherent instinct. Legnano did not confine the natural right to merely protecting one's life. He explained that self-defense was proper not only in defense of life, but also in defense of one's property, and that deadly force to protect that property was justified if necessary. Further, the principle of self-defense allows a person to come to the aid of a relative or friend whose person or property is being attacked. Finally, Legnano noted that a victim is not required to use only the exact level of force that his assailant uses by posing the rhetorical affirmation: “suppose a strong and vigorous man strikes me with his fist, and I am a poor fellow who cannot stand up to him with the fist. May I defend myself with a sword?”

Following in the footsteps of Legnano was the sixteenth century Spanish scholar, Francisco de Victoria. Victoria wrote several works on the subject of the “just war” and his classroom at the University of Salamanca became known as “the cradle of international law.” Like Legnano, Victoria believed that the justification for war was necessarily predicated upon adopting the individual right of self-defense as its derivative source. Thus, Victoria's first proposition articulated the individual right of self-defense: Any one, even a private person, can accept and wage a defensive war. This is shown by the fact that force may be repelled by force. Hence, any one can make this kind of war, without authority from any one else, for the defense not only of his person, but also of his property and goods. The foundation established by Legnano and Victoria created the platform for the father of International Law, Dutch scholar, Hugo Grotius. His work, The Rights of War and Peace, is considered the cornerstone of modern International Law and Grotius is hailed as “the founder of modern civilized interstate relations.”

The essential elements of Grotius' works were founded upon the precepts of self-defense and self-preservation. Grotius wrote that even human babies, like animals, have an instinct to defend themselves. Further, this instinct extended to the protection of property rights and was one of the fundamental elements of the social fabric of modern society, because if people were barred from using force to protect their property from those who would take it by force, then “human Society and Commerce would necessarily be dissolved.”

Grotius based his rules for war between nations predicated on the underlying individual natural right of self-defense and observed that the rationale for both were based upon the same moral principle: “[I]t is allowed to Repel Force by Force.” It is upon the foundation of the fundamental individual right of self-defense that the structure of International Law is built.

Second only to Hugo Grotius was 17th century scholar Samuel Pufendorf, whose eight volume masterpiece, Of the Law of Nature and Nations, incorporated theories of Grotius, and the philosophies Thomas Hobbes and John Locke. Pufendorf; like Grotius, used natural law theory to construct the law of nations. The primary natural law employed by Pufendorf was that of self-defense: “Defence is a thing of more ancient date than any Civil Command…” and that no state can therefore forbid self-defense.

The natural right to self-defense which forms the very core of the principles of International Law, has one final component which protects the means by ‘which the right can be exercised. Thomas Hobbes explained “it is in vain for a man to have a right to the End, if the right to the necessary means be denied him, it follows, that since every Man hath a right to preserve himself, he must also be allowed a right to use all the means, and do all the actions, without which he cannot preserve himself.”

I seriously doubt the Court will utilize foreign or international law materials in its decision. Nonetheless, I think the historical arguments presented by these international scholars may have more value than their contemporary comparative country analysis. We know from recent years that historical constitutional comparativism is the least controversial form of borrowing, embraced by liberal and conservative justices alike. I also would expect the Court to focus on constitutional history in its decision, and it is quite possible that the international context may play a part of that historical analysis.

Friday, March 14, 2008

Defining “Wrongful Retention” Under the HCCAICA
The Eleventh Circuit recently rendered one of the most unusual cases involving international child abduction I have ever read. In Pielage v. McConnell, the question centers on whether a state court order constitutes a wrongful retention within the meaning of the Hague Convention on Civil Aspects of International Child Abduction (HCCAICA). The Eleventh Circuit ruled that since the child is in the possession of the petitioner mother (who is claiming a right to return with her child to the Netherlands), there has been no retention. In other words, since the baby is with the mother, it doesn’t matter that the mother thinks they should be living in the Netherlands. The "state of habitual residence" is conflated with the physical location of the custodial parent. This interpretation of the HCCAICA finds no right of return if the petitioner is resident in this country with child by virtue of court order. For the treaty to have effect, she apparently must move back to the Netherlands without her child and then pursue a claim of wrongful retention.


Pielage contends that the Alabama state court's ne exeat order constitutes a wrongful retention of Josha under the Hague Convention, as implemented by ICARA, because it amounts to an interference with her custodial right to return the child to his habitual residence in the Netherlands. The district court assumed that the Netherlands was the child's habitual residence, and although McConnell disputes that, we will make the same assumption.

This is an unusual Hague Convention and ICARA case. Most of them involve the non-custodial parent removing the child from the custodial parent or retaining the child after a permitted visitation period has ended. Here we have the unique claim that the order of a state court prohibiting one parent from removing the child from its jurisdiction pending a custody determination is a wrongful retention under the Hague Convention.

Neither the Hague Convention nor ICARA actually defines the term “retention.” Pielage, however, points us to Article V of the Hague Convention, which defines a parent's “rights of custody” over a child as including “the right to determine the child's place of residence.” Using that definition, Pielage contends that the state court ne exeat order is interfering with one of her rights of custody by preventing her from removing Josha from the state court's jurisdiction to take him to her desired place of residence-the Netherlands. According to her, that is all she needs to show to state a valid claim under the Hague Convention.

We are not persuaded to define “retention” to include every breach of a parent's rights of custody. Doing that would render the treaty's definition of “wrongful” superfluous. After all, the treaty provides that a retention is wrongful only where “it is in breach of rights of custody attributed to a person, an institution or any other body.” Hague Convention art. 3. That necessarily means that there are some retentions that are not wrongful. Under Pielage's construction, however, none would be. Any breach of the rights of custody would be a retention and it would be wrongful. There would be no retention unless there were a wrongful one.

We have said, however, that “[t]reaties, like statutes, should be construed so that no words are treated as being meaningless, redundant, or mere surplusage.” If every breach of a right of custody is a retention, as Pielage insists, then the key term “wrongful retention” is redundant. The proper interpretation of the Convention's phrase “wrongful retention” must give “retention” meaning apart from “wrongful.”

According to one dictionary, the primary definition of the term “retain” is “to keep possession of.” This meaning of the term “retention” is supported by the Pérez-Vera Report, which states that the Hague Convention was meant to remedy situations where a “child is taken out of the family and social environment in which [he] has developed.” Elisa Pérez-Vera, Explanatory Report on the 1980 Hague Child Abduction Convention, in 3 Acts and Documents of the Fourteenth Session, Child Abduction ¶ 12 (1982). This indicates that the term “retention” is meant to cover the circumstances where a child has been prevented from returning to his usual family and social environment. See also id. ¶ 110 (“In fact, we must not forget that it is the right of children not to be removed from a particular environment which sometimes is a basically family one, which the fight against international child abductions seeks to protect.”).

At the time the ne exeat order was issued Josha was just under a year old. His mother had carried him back and forth between the Netherlands and this country. In order to avoid deciding where Josha habitually resided, we have assumed that his habitual residence was in the Netherlands, as Pielage contends. But we cannot assume away the statements in Pielage's own complaint. Taking what she has alleged as true, as we must, Josha spent ten of his first twelve months on this earth in Baldwin County, Alabama, and only two months in the Netherlands. His social environment, to the extent he had one apart from his mother, was in this country. His family environment was with his mother. The state ne exeat order changed none of that. Under that order Josha remained with his mother in the same family and social environment where he had been for ten of the twelve months (and all of the last five months) of his life. Because the order did not disrupt or otherwise alter the “family and social environment in which [he] has developed,” it is not the type of “retention” that the Hague Convention was intended to remedy.

Pielage argues in her brief that “[i]f the Hague Convention means anything, it means that a child may not be retained away from the place where (s)he habitually resides, against the wishes and needs of his or her custodian.” This is not entirely accurate. According to the Pérez-Vera Report, the treaty's “reference to children ‘wrongfully retained’ is meant to cover those cases where the child, with the consent of the person who normally has custody, is in a place other than its place of habitual residence and is not returned by the person with whom [he] was staying.” Id. ¶ 57 (emphasis added). In other words, the Hague Convention was meant to cover the situation where a child has been kept by another person away from the petitioner claiming rights under the Convention, not where the petitioner still retains the child but is prevented from removing him from the jurisdiction.

Although the preamble to the Hague Convention does state that one of its purposes is the return of the child to its state of habitual residence, see Hague Convention preamble, T.I.A.S. No. 11,670, at 4, 1343 U.N.T.S. 89, at 98, the substantive provisions of the treaty are silent on where the child is to be returned. This silence, according to the Pérez-Vera Report, was intentional and must be “understood as allowing the authorities of the State of refuge to return the child directly to the applicant, regardless of the latter's present place of residence.”Pérez-Vera, supra, ¶ 110.In cases such as this one, where the child remains in the physical care of the petitioner, it is impossible “to return the child directly to the applicant.” Id. That is so because there has been no “retention” within the meaning of the Convention. There having been no retention, there can have been no “wrongful retention.”

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Economic Torture
Now here is a novel argument about "economic torture" from a recent Second Circuit case of Savchuck v. Mukasey:


An alien is entitled to protection under CAT when he or she is “more likely than not [to] ... be tortured ... [in] the proposed country of removal.”8 C.F.R. § 208.16(c)(2).“The burden of proof is on the applicant ... to establish that it is more likely than not that he or she would be tortured if removed to the proposed country of removal.”Id. In In re J-F-F-, the Attorney General pointed out that logically:

[a]n alien will never be able to show that he faces a more likely than not chance of torture if one link in the chain cannot be shown to be more likely than not to occur. It is the likelihood of all necessary events coming together that must more likely than not lead to torture, and a chain of events cannot be more likely than its least likely link.

In his application for asylum and withholding of removal, Savchuck wrote in response to the question “are you afraid of being subject to torture in your home country” that he feared that he would “be subjected to severe economic hardship,” which would result in him “living on the street,” “fall[ing] prey to the criminals and corrupt local government officials,” and make it “impossible ... to buy food or other basic life essentials,” thus resulting in his death at “a very early age.” Relying on In re J-F-F-, the BIA determined that Savchuck's “claim is too speculative in that it involves a chain of assumptions regarding the respondent's potential economic situation in Ukraine.”This conclusion was correct.

Sunday, March 2, 2008

Prince Harry and Jimmy McCain
Last year the British media entered into a voluntary agreement with the British Ministry of Defence to have a news blackout of Prince Harry's deployment in Afghanistan. Harry had been serving there about ten weeks when the news broke on the Drudge Report of his whereabouts. The BBC is now defending the news blackout. From the sounds of it, in exchange for extensive filming of Harry on the battlefield, the British press would keep mum about his deployment to Afghanistan. "So, for the past ten weeks, the BBC, ITV and Sky News have been filming with Prince Harry - the first time we've been up close and personal with him. We interviewed him ... in mid-December, just before he was sent to Afghanistan, we spent some time with him at the start of January when he was settling in at a remote base in Southern Helmand Province, and most recently, we filmed with him last week at a new location in Helmand Province."

When the news broke of Harry's deployment in Afghanistan, he was immediately rushed home. Harry was obviously frustrated. "It's something I would love to do... I don't want to sit around Windsor, because I generally don't like England that much and it's nice to be away from all the press and the papers."

I think the real story here is the failure of the British Ministry of Defence. They are concerned about Harry's safety, but then allow reporters to film him in action. Then when news broke of his service in Afghanistan they rush him home. We mustn't have any royals in action with the whole world watching. That would put him at risk and unduly inspire the public.

And then there is Jimmy McCain. The press, including the British media, have had no qualms reporting on the imminent deployment of McCain's youngest son to Iraq in December 2006. Then again in February 2008, they reported of McCain's reluctance to talk about his son for fear of his security.


Jimmy McCain is about to end his first rotation to Iraq. In more than a year of campaigning, McCain has publicly mentioned Jimmy only twice.... McCain’s reticence is in one sense understandable - he has not wanted to draw attention to Jimmy for fear of making him more of a target in Iraq. 'Frankly, it’s for [Jimmy’s] security and the security of the men and women serving around him.' Some of McCain’s rivals regard him as almost perverse for not trying to gain political advantage from his warrior sons. In a city well known for its presidential draft-dodgers, McCain has long stood out in Washington as an authentic military hero. “I just feel it’s inappropriate for us to mention our children,” the senator said recently. “I wouldn’t want to seem like I’m trying to gain some kind of advantage."

It's hard not to be impressed watching McCain's handling of his son's deployment in Iraq. And it's hard not to be disheartened watching the British mishandling of their favorite son's retreat from Afghanistan.

Friday, February 29, 2008

Serbia Threatens to Seek ICJ Opinion on Kosovo
Kosovo's declaration of independence raised a host of interesting international legal questions that Chris, among others, explored in some very good posts and discussions. And it looks like the ICJ may get a chance to opine on this question as well.

Serbia will soon take Kosovo's "illegal" declaration of independence to the International Court of Justice, Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic told AFP Thursday.

"Serbia will seek the legal opinion of the International Court of Justice, asking whether or not this (declaration of independence) was done in compliance with international law," Jeremic said in an interview on the sidelines of regional Balkan talks in Sofia.


It's unclear how this would actually get to the ICJ (an advisory opinion? an application against which country, exactly?). But it would be useful to see the ICJ tackle this question...

Wednesday, February 27, 2008

European Court of Human Rights to Decide Saadi v. Italy
The following is a guest post by Sonya Sceats, an Associate Fellow in International Law at Chatham House in London.

Tomorrow could be the end of the road for the UK's long campaign against a ruling by the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg which prevents the removal of terror suspects to countries where they face a 'real risk' of torture.

The Court is due to deliver judgment in an important case brought against Italy by a Tunisian national who is resisting deportation on the basis he could face torture in his homeland where he has been sentenced in absentia for terrorism-related offences. The UK has put its own arguments to the Court to try and secure a more relaxed approach in these sorts of deportation cases where national security is at stake.

The prohibition of torture is one of the very few 'absolute' human rights, meaning that international law permits no exceptions to it — this total ban is considered an iconic achievement of the international human rights system. However, the increased threat of international terrorism has placed the ban under increasing pressure in recent years, including from states like the US and the UK which hold themselves up as proud architects of this system.

For the UK, a key sticking point is a 1996 decision by the Court which blocked the UK's efforts to repatriate a supporter of Sikh separatism to India; there was strong evidence he would be tortured by Punjabi security forces and the Court held that parties to the European Convention on Human Rights must not deport anyone if they face a 'real risk' of torture upon arrival. Crucially, the Court underscored the universal nature of this protection, rejecting the UK's arguments that an exception should apply because the individual concerned, Mr Chahal, was suspected of involvement with terrorism.

For many years now the UK Government has voiced dissatisfaction with this decision. It believes that the Chahal case goes beyond what the framers of the Convention intended when they drafted the torture prohibition (providing simply that 'No one shall be subjected to torture or to inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment'), and that it frustrates legitimate security policies in a post-9/11 world.

The UK Government has mounted a legal assault on the test for deportations developed by the Court in the Chahal case. It has urged the Court to recognise that the torture ban is not in fact absolute in such cases and that states should be permitted to weigh the risk of torture abroad against the risk of terror attacks at home.

Tomorrow's judgment in the case of Saadi v Italy should answer these arguments one way or the other. The Court is widely expected to reject the UK's submissions that European states should be permitted to use a 'balancing' test when deciding whether to deport dangerous people to countries with poor track records on torture. If it does not, there is sure to be an enormous backlash in parts of the international community –- critics will accuse the Court of irreparably compromising the 'absolute' nature of the torture ban with the likely consequence that more people will be removed to face torture in other parts of the world.

Regardless of the outcome tomorrow, this episode tarnishes the reputation of the UK as a leader in the field of human rights. In the past, the UK was known for the emphasis on human rights in its foreign policy but in recent years it has developed a less enviable reputation as an innovator of bad practice. For example, it has adopted the extremely controversial practice of agreeing 'diplomatic assurances' with states such as Jordan, Libya and Lebanon which provide that deportees will not be tortured on return. Human rights activists say that there is no real possibility of monitoring whether the countries concerned will keep to their promises. This latest attempt to render even more elastic the rules on torture should thus be a source of acute concern.

Thursday, February 21, 2008

The Succession of Kosovo and Minimum Public Order
[Tai-Heng Cheng is Associate Professor of Law at New York Law School. His most recent book is State Succession and Commercial Obligations.]

I am grateful to Roger Alford for inviting me to share some thoughts on the recent developments in Kosovo.

On February 17, 2008, Kosovo’s parliament voted to declare independence from Serbia. This unilateral declaration accelerated the international decision-making process on the status of Kosovo, and requires a collective international response.

As Julian Ku noted on Opinio Juris earlier this week, decision-makers and scholars should examine their “policy preferences” regarding whether to support the succession of Kosovo from Serbia. I would add that should the international community decide to accept Kosovo’s succession claim, international actors should manage the consequences of succession to minimize disruptions to world public order and protect the human rights of all parties involved.

Appraising Kosovo’s Succession Claim. Chris Borgen has accurately pointed out that states have to decide whether or not to recognize Kosovo as an independent state. If I understand Professor Borgen’s post, in his view such recognition is merely declarative and not constitutive. If Kosovo meets the criteria for statehood, then non-recognition does not invalidate its statehood. This view might find some support in the Convention on Rights and Duties of States, concluded on December 26, 1933 in Montevideo. Article 1 of the Montevideo Convention suggests the criteria for statehood: “The state as a person of international law should possess the following qualifications: a ) a permanent population; b ) a defined territory; c ) government; and d) capacity to enter into relations with the other states.” None of these four criteria explicitly depend on recognition.

As a practical matter, however, if a substantial number of states reject Kosovo’s succession claim by withholding recognition, these states would be hard pressed (although not absolutely precluded, if the unique status of Taiwan provides any indication) to enter into diplomatic relations with Kosovo, to conclude treaties with it, or to grant it sovereign immunity independently of Serbia. In such a situation, regardless of whether scholars think Kosovo has become a state, it would not be able to fully function as a state in the international system. The reality is therefore that recognition serves a key constitutive function in the process of succession.

Policy-makers in each state should consider the consequences of granting or denying recognition to Kosovo. The Security Council reaffirmed in Resolution 1244, a Chapter VII decision, an international commitment to “substantial autonomy and meaningful self-administration for Kosovo.” Withholding recognition might encourage Serbia to resist this international decision. Granting recognition would compress the time frame for a negotiated settlement on the international consequences of Kosovo’s succession, thereby probably precluding seamless transition like the disintegration of Czechoslovakia in 1991, or the transfers of Hong Kong and Macau to China in 1997 and 1999, respectively. But it would achieve the policy-goal of providing Kosovo with autonomy and self-administration.

Managing the Impact of Kosovo’s Succession. Should the world community generally accept Kosovo’s claim to statehood, the international community must manage the disruptions to preexisting international arrangements.

There are currently few, if any, crystallized rules regarding the effects of state succession on preexisting international obligations. Every succession has unique variables and intense political pressures that have precluded the formation of customary law through consistent state practice and opinio juris. The Vienna Convention on Succession in Respect of Treaties of 1978 has entered into force, but lacks widespread ratification and binds only its handful of signatories. The Vienna Convention on Succession in Respect of State Property, Archives and Debts of 1983 was so controversial that it never entered into force.

Human Rights. In the absence of international legal rules on succession, Kosovo should rapidly accede to preexisting multilateral treaties, especially constitutive human rights treaties. This would minimize disruptions to the international human rights program, affirm Kosovo’s commitment to prevent the repetition of human rights abuses inflicted on Kosovars, reassure its Serbian minority, and, importantly, confirm its capacity to enter into treaties and its status as a state.

Investment Treaties. Serbia’s Investment and Export Protection Agency reports that Serbia has entered into 34 bilateral investment treaties, including with the USA, UK, Germany, France, Austria, Italy, and Greece. In 2007, it also ratified the Convention on the Settlement of Investment Disputes between States and Nationals of Other States. Kosovo should rapidly confirm through bilateral exchanges of diplomatic notes that Serbia’s BITs bind Kosovo, subject to modifications that may be necessary to accommodate Kosovo’s economic circumstances. If the World Bank will permit it, Kosovo should also confirm the continuity of the ICSID Convention. This strategy will help to further consolidate Kosovo’s attainment of statehood, and help minimize disruptions to the international economy.

External Debt. There is also the thorny issue of Serbia’s debt, estimated at $25 billion in November 2007. In the current volatile global economy, markets will need reassurance that this debt will be repaid. In past successions, such as the dissolutions of the Soviet Union and the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, creditors have initially proposed that the successor states assume joint and several liabilities for preexisting debt. Eventually, however, they accepted in negotiated settlements proportional allocations of debt among successor states, and substantial debt reduction or rescheduling to accommodate the limited economic capacities of the new states.

Annex VI of the Ahtisaari Plan, to which Professor Borgen has referred in his prior blog post, proposes a negotiated settlement between Kosovo and Serbia. Under this negotiated settlement, “allocated external debt shall become a liability of Kosovo where the final beneficiary is located in Kosovo; non-allocated external debt shall be apportioned to the parties according to a proportional key to be established by agreement between the parties, in cooperation with the International Monetary Fund.” In a statement before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, U.S. Under Secretary for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns assumed that Kosovo would share a burden of Serbia’s debt. He also noted that that the President’s 2008 budget included $151 million in aid to Kosovo, and anticipated three times that amount in international contributions from other donors.

Kosovo would be well-served by commencing debt negotiations with Serbia’s creditors immediately, regardless of whether Serbia is willing to negotiate with Kosovo at this point in time. This would signal to capital markets that Kosovo is a responsible sovereign state and help ensure access to further funds, which will be critical for Kosovo’s sustainable development. The risk that Serbia’s debts will debilitate Kosovo is limited by the availability of substantial international aid, as well as the trend in recent successions to negotiate debt repayment on reasonable terms. Creditors ultimately have no interest in imposing such onerous conditions that the successor state defaults.

In making these recommendations, I acknowledge Robert Sloane’s warning, in his thoughtful essay, “The Policies of Self-Determination: Harmonizing Self-Determination and Global Order in the Twenty-First Century, 30 Fordham Journal of International Law 1288, 1316 (2007), that policy-makers should not allow a focus on the global commercial dimensions in state succession to “obscure or minimize other fundamental values at stake.” The analysis here of next steps in the Kosovo situation is necessarily preliminary. Nonetheless, I hope I have outlined what Henry Perritt has described in 25 Wisconsin International Law Journal 129 (2007) as “a constructive approach to working out the complicated succession issues embedded in a decision over the final status of Kosovo.”

Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Kosovo's Declaration: Analyzing the Legal Issues of Secession and Recognition
Having already discussed the application of Security Council Resolution 1244, I will now turn to general principles of international law concerning secession and recognition.

Thomas Franck, one of the five international law experts asked by the Canadian government to consider certain issues regarding a hypothesized secession of Quebec, wrote that:
It cannot seriously be argued today that international law prohibits secession. It cannot seriously be denied that international law permits secession. There is a privilege of secession recognized in international law and the law imposes no duty on any people not to secede.
(emphasis in original)

International law, then, does not foreclose on the possibility of secession, but it does provide a framework within which certain secessions are favored or disfavored depending on the facts. The key, then, will be to assess whether or not, based on the facts, Kosovo meets the criteria for the legal privilege of secession.

According to the BBC, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said concerning Kosovo:
"We are speaking here about the subversion of all the foundations of international law, about the subversion of those principles which, at huge effort, and at the cost of Europe's pain, sacrifice and bloodletting have been earned and laid down as a basis of its existence.

"We are speaking about a subversion of those principles on which the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe rests, those [principles] laid down in the fundamental documents of the UN."

The main principle he refers to is that borders should be changed only by agreement.
Lavrov’s statement is a bit of an oversimplification (but not by much). The concept of self-determination is actually comprised of two distinct subsidiary parts. The default rule is “internal self-determination,” which is essentially the protection of minority rights within a state. As long as a state provides a minority group the ability to speak their language, practice their culture in a meaningful way, and effectively participate in the political community, then that group is said to have internal self-determination. Secession, or “external self-determination,” is generally disfavored as it would conflict with the territorial integrity of the pre-existing state, if that state did not accept the secession.

The Supreme Court of Canada grappled with questions of self-determination and secession in re Secession of Quebec. The Canadian court found that:
[t]he recognized sources of international law establish that the right to self-determination of a people is normally fulfilled through internal self-determination—a people’s pursuit of its political, economic, social and cultural development within the framework of an existing state. A right to external self-determination (which in this case potentially takes the form of the assertion of a right to unilateral secession) arises only in the most extreme cases and, even then, under carefully defined circumstances…
Reference re: Secession of Quebec, 2 S.C.R. 217 at para. 123 (1998).

So, unlike what Foreign Minister Lavrov says, it is not that international law denies any secession that does not come about by agreement of the parties. Rather, while issues of secession rarely receive formal adjudication, state practice does point the way to categorizing what are the “extreme cases” and “carefully defined circumstances” under which the privilege of secession exists. Based on state practice, court opinions, and other authoritative writings, any attempt to claim a legal secession—that is, where secession trumps territorial integrity—must at least show that:
(1) the secessionists are a “people” (in the ethnographic sense);
(2) the state from which they are seceding seriously violates their human rights; and
(3) there are no other effective remedies under either domestic law or international law.
I discuss this framework at greater length in this report.

Applying the framework to Kosovo, it is important to keep in mind that the situation in Kosovo is the result of numerous factors including the dissolution of a state (Yugoslavia), the general breakdown of a region, and the bad acts of the government of the pre-existing state (Federal Republic of Yugoslavia/ Serbia). The international administration of Kosovo, due to the humanitarian disaster that was being caused by the government of Serbia in 1999, is also of crucial importance. These factors play a part in making the relevant facts, and thus the legal analysis, in the case of Kosovo different from those of separatist conflicts in Georgia and Moldova, for instance.

The first issue is whether the Kosovar Albanians are a “people.” While there is an open question as to whether the Kosovar Albanians are a nation unto themselves, they are clearly a distinct people from the Serb majority of the rest of Serbia. While this may weaken the case of a legal right to external self-determination, it is nonetheless much stronger than, say, arguments by Transnistrians for secession as they clearly are not a “people” as the term is currently defined in international law.

Regarding the second prong, there is a credible argument that the Serbs were responsible for serious human rights abuses against the Kosovars (or a “grave humanitarian situation” and a “threat to international peace and security” in Res. 1244’s wording), culminating in nascent ethnic cleansing which instigated NATO’s intervention.

As for whether there is a reconciliation possible such that secession from Serbia is not the only option, the political situation prior to the declaration of independence had collapsed. The US/ EU/ Russian troika had reported back to the UN in December 2007 that dialogue had failed. While one can always hold out for hope of a negotiated solution, the positions did not seem reconcilable and there seemed to be a real concern as to whether the Albanian Kosovar community and the ethnic Serbian community would coexist peacefully within a single political entity.

I also think that one other important factor is that Kosovo is transitioning from a period of international administration. It is significant that, although Serbia has had de jure authority over Kosovo since 1999, the territory has actually been under international administration because the situation was considered so volatile. A question of whether or not to reintegrate into the pre-existing state a territory that the international community had found necessary to administer is a different situation than assessing a claim by a separatist group that, on its own, is seeking to overturn the authority of the pre-existing state and unilaterally secede. By the way, whether or not the NATO bombing campaign was illegal, as some have argued, is actually beside the point as the international administration of Kosovo was due to a subsequent Security Council Chapter VII resolution (Res. 1244, discussed in my previous post) that set the process for what was to come.

That being said, this does not necessarily mean that Kosovo’s secession is “legal.” Rather, I hope this shows that under the basic framework provided by international law there are arguments that can be made in either direction. I think this is the quintessential “tough case.” In difficult situations such as these, the issue of legality often shifts from the question of “Is it legal to secede?” to “Is it legal to recognize such a secession?” A subtly different, but nonetheless a different, question. As Daniel Thurer put it (perhaps overstating the case) in his 1998 addendum to the entry on “Self-Determination” in the Encyclopedia on Public International Law,
Rather than formally recognizing a right of secession, the international community seems to have regarded all these processes of transition as being factual rearrangements of power, taking place outside the formal structures of international law: international law only became subsequently relevant within the context of recognition.
The EU memorandum concerning Res. 1244 discussed in my previous post also stated the following concerning recognition:
"Generally, once an entity has emerged as a state in the sense of international law, a political decision can be taken to recognise it."
This reflects the general understanding that recognition itself is not a formal requirement of statehood. Rather, recognition merely accepts a factual occurrence. Thus recognition is “declaratory” as opposed to “constitutive.” Nonetheless, no state is required to recognize an entity claiming statehood.

To the contrary, a good argument may be made that states should not recognize a new state if such recognition would perpetuate a breach of international law. The treatise Oppenheim’s (Ninth), Sec. 54, states that “[r]ecognition may also be withheld where a new situation originates in an act which is contrary to general international law.” The Restatement (Third) of Foreign Relations Law of the U.S., Sec 202(2), explains that
A state has an obligation not to recognize or treat as a state an entity that has attained the qualification for statehood as a result of a threat or use of armed force in violation of the United Nations Charter.
The BBC reports that:
In Russia and Serbia's view, since there is no agreement [by Serbia to change its borders], there should be no recognition.
But, absent any qualification, that cannot be legally correct. Changing the boundaries of a sovereign state (Serbia) in and of itself would not make Kosovar independence illegal as the international community has come to accept secession under certain circumstances (discussed above).

Moreover, even acts that were illegal at the outset:
may eventually acquire legal status if, as a matter of empirical fact, it is recognized that through a combination of acquiescence and prescription, an illegal act may at some later point be accorded some form of legal status. In the law of property, for example, it is well known that a squatter on land may ultimately become the owner if the true owner sleeps on his right to reposess the land. In this way, a change in the factual circumstances may subsequently be reflected in change in legal status. It is, however, quite another matter to suggest that a subsequent condonation of an initially illegal act retroactively creates a legal right to engage in the act in the first place. The broader contention is not supported by the international principle of effectivity or otherwise and must be rejected.
Reference re: Secession of Quebec, at para. 146.

For that argument to work here, one would need to conclude that, although Serbia maintains a claim to Kosovo, some relevant portion of the international community treats Kosovo as a state and it is effectively operating as one. (This, in part, draws on the declaratory role of recognition.) While some argue that the ongoing objection of a predecessor state (Serbia) should prevent any third-party state from recognizing a secession, the U.S. (as well as other countries, I believe) has consistently argued that such recognition is not required as a matter of law. Thus, the U.S. has held the view that despite the objections of the predecessor state, the international community can recognize a secession.

More generally, state practice evinces that in matters of state recognition there is, absent a clear indication of illegality, deference to the political process of each state as to whether or not to recognize an aspirant state. For an example of the international community indicating illegality, the Security Council issued a resolution against the recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. There is no such resolution here. To the other extent, there seems to be a rising tide of acceptance. Is this a legal rule? No. It is simply a realization that, in cases of secession, law and politics are especially tightly intertwined.

In the end, I have no quick answer regarding whether or not Kosovo’s declaration of independence is legal or illegal. As explained in my previous post, I am skeptical of arguments that Resolution 1244 would prohibit Kosovo from becoming sovereign. However, I am also aware that the international law of self-determination has a bias against secession. (It is a bias that I think is well justified.) Nonetheless, I do think there is a real and credible argument to be made that Kosovo’s declaration does not offend international law and, similarly, neither does the recognition of Kosovo by the United States or other third party states.

If we take as a given that secession is not utterly prohibited by international law, then the case of Kosovo presents a set of facts that I think are quite persuasive: an ethnic group (though perhaps not a “nation”), within a region with historically defined boundaries (Kosovo as a province), after an international intervention to prevent a humanitarian disaster being caused by the predecessor state, and after years of negotiations with the predecessor state leading to a complete deadlock, seeks independence via a declaration that is coordinated with, and supported by, a large segment of the international community (supposedly 100 states had indicated that they would recognize Kosovo).

It is a situation that I think provides an apt counterexample to specious claims for a “right” to secede, such as those of Transnistria, which due to different material facts would fail under the same legal framework.

Tuesday, February 19, 2008

International Law and Kosovo’s Independence: Assessing Resolution 1244
As the initial euphoria or anger (depending on your point of view) over the declaration of independence by Kosovo begins to subside, commentators are increasingly turning to the legal question: does international law support or impede Kosovo’s bid for independence? Too many times a quick and simple answer is given (International law denies Kosovo’s independence! Kosovo has a right to be free under international law!). This post and the one following it will tease out some of the threads of the fairly complex legal issues involved. A subsequent post will deal with the question of Kosovo’s status under the Ahtisaari Plan.

There are actually two distinct issues which at times are conflated (1) whether internatonal law supports (or at least does not deny) a claim of secession and (2) whether a separatist entity should be recognized as a state. In order to assess Kosovo’s status as a matter of interntaional law, one must consider each of these questions. But, first though, we must look at Security Council Resolution 1244 (1999) and ask if it affects Kosovo’s bid for independence.

Some of the key language includes the following from the preamble:
Reaffirming the commitment of all Member States to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and the other States of the region, as set out in the Helsinki Final Act and annex 2,

Reaffirming the call in previous resolutions for substantial autonomy and meaningful self-administration for Kosovo,
Moreover, the operative paragraphs include the following:
The Security Council…

1. Decides that a political solution to the Kosovo crisis shall be based on the general principles in annex 1 and as further elaborated in the principles and other required elements in annex 2; …

10. Authorizes the Secretary-General, with the assistance of relevant international organizations, to establish an international civil presence in Kosovo in order to provide an interim administration for Kosovo under which the people of Kosovo can enjoy substantial autonomy within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and which will provide transitional administration while establishing and overseeing the development of provisional democratic self-governing institutions to ensure conditions for a peaceful and normal life for all inhabitants of Kosovo;

11. Decides that the main responsibilities of the international civil presence will include:

a. Promoting the establishment, pending a final settlement, of substantial autonomy and self-government in Kosovo, taking full account of annex 2 and of the Rambouillet accords (S/1999/648);...

e. Facilitating a political process designed to determine Kosovo's future status, taking into account the Rambouillet accords (S/1999/648);

f. In a final stage, overseeing the transfer of authority from Kosovo's provisional institutions to institutions established under a political settlement;
The annexes including further language such as the following from annex 1, listing general principles for a political solution:
A political process towards the establishment of an interim political framework agreement providing for a substantial self-government for Kosovo, taking full account of the Rambouillet accords and the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and the other countries of the region, and the demilitarization of the KLA;
Annex 2 states, in part:
Agreement should be reached on the following principles to move towards a resolution of the Kosovo crisis:
...
5. Establishment of an interim administration for Kosovo as a part of the international civil presence under which the people of Kosovo can enjoy substantial autonomy within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, to be decided by the Security Council of the United Nations. The interim administration to provide transitional administration while establishing and overseeing the development of provisional democratic self-governing institutions to ensure conditions for a peaceful and normal life for all inhabitants in Kosovo.
According to the BBC, the EU has taken the position that
independence for Kosovo is within the spirit of 1244, if not strictly within the letter.

The 1244 resolution also envisaged a final status process and did not constrain or pre-determine its outcome.

“Acting to implement the final status outcome in such a situation is more compatible with the intentions of 1244 than continuing to work to block any outcome in a situation where everyone agrees that the status quo is unsustainable," [the EU memorandum] says.

The document adds that this approach "will enable, rather than frustrate, the conclusion of the final status process envisaged in resolution 1244".

I think the EU position holds water. As usual, it is all in the drafting. Paragraph 1 references that a political solution shall be based on the principles of annexes 1 and 2. But those annexes are silent as to the governmental form of the final status, they only say that the “interim political framework” should afford substantial self-governance for Kosovo and take into account the territorial integrity of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. Note also the wording of operative paragraph 11(a), that states that the international civil presence will "Promot[e] the establishment, pending a final settlement, of substantial autonomy and self-government in Kosovo..." Once again the substantial autonomy language is in regards to the interim status of Kosovo. The document is silent as to its final status.

Serbia and Russia understandably argue that it is implied that the final status should then be one of only autonomy (as opposed to sovereignty) but that is not within the letter of the Resolution. It is simply another interpretation of what the language of the resolution implies.

In sum, 1244 is one of those political documents that give both parties wiggle-room for how they want to read it.

Moreover, 1244 may have been overtaken by events as the U.S., the EU, and Russia (the "troika') jointly reported to the UN in December 2007 that political negotiations between Serbs and Kosovar Albanians had failed.

If Res. 1244 is not dispositive, then we would need to turn to the international legal principles related to secession and recognition. I will consider those issues in my next post.

Monday, February 18, 2008

Wikipedia Resources on Kosovo

Kosovo's declaration of independence and the subsequent reaction by various countries is obviously a quickly changing situation. There are two new Wikipedia pages that attempt to collate the latest information. See the Wikipedia page on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence, and especially the Wikipedia page on International Reactions to Kosovo's Declaration.

Hat Tip: Catholicgauze

Sunday, February 17, 2008

Europe’s Newest State (?)
As expected, Kosovo’s parliament has declared independence today in a vote that was unanimous among those attending. Ten Serbian MP’s did not attend the vote. According to the BBC, Kosovo’s Prime Minister Hashim Thaci said
"The independence of Kosovo marks the end of the dissolution of the former Yugoslavia,"…

He said Kosovo would be built in accordance with the UN plan drawn up by former Finnish President, Martti Ahtisaari.
As for reactions, the BBC reports that
Serbia's Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica blamed the US which he said was "ready to violate the international order for its own military interests".

"Today, this policy of force thinks that it has triumphed by establishing a false state," Mr Kostunica said.
According to CNN:
Serbian Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic has promised his country will refrain from using force against Kosovo after independence, though he has warned that Serbia will take punitive diplomatic, political, and economic measures against the province.
As for the US, CNN reports that President Bush said today that
"[Kosovo's] status must be resolved in order for the Balkans to be stable..."

Bush said the Ahtisaari plan — named after former Finnish President Marti Ahtisaari — is the best option. The proposal would give Kosovo limited statehood under international supervision.

President Bush added that "it's in Serbia's interest to be aligned with Europe and the Serbian people can know that they have a friend in America."

"We are heartened by the fact that the Kosovo government has clearly proclaimed its willingness and its desire to support Serbian rights in Kosovo," Bush said.

Thaci said Thursday he would establish a new government office for minorities and it would protect the rights of minorities after the province declares independence.
I should note that I am not sure that the “limited statehood” description is accurate. The Ahtisaari Plan mandates an ongoing international civilian and military presence, but it also envisions a transition of power from the UN Mission in Kosovo to the new Kosovar government. I will dig into the Plan to assess the "limited statehood" description and post on this tomorrow.

Regarding EU and Russian reactions, the BBC notes:
Recognition by a number of EU states, including the UK and other major countries, will come on Monday after a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels, says the BBC's Paul Reynolds.

The US is also expected to announce its recognition on Monday.

Three EU states - Cyprus, Romania and Slovakia - have told other EU governments that they will not recognise Kosovo, says our correspondent.

Russia's foreign ministry has indicated that Western recognition of an independent Kosovo could have implications for the Georgian breakaway provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Moreover, Bosnian Serbs had stated that, should Kosovo declare indepndence, they would seek independence for Republika Srpska, what Bosnian Serbs call their ethnic enclave within Bosnia. (The Badinter Commission had previously nixed such a claim as a matter of international law.)

For now, it will be important to actually watch the reaction within Kosovo. The ethnic geography could lead to a conflict within the nascent country. Although the main reaction throughout Kosovo has been joyous, there are isolated incidences of violence:
The first sign of trouble in Kosovo came in the ethnic Serbian area of the flashpoint town of Mitrovica, where two hand grenades were thrown at international community buildings.

One exploded at a UN court building while the other failed to go off outside offices expected to house the new EU mission.
I'll write more on Kosovo as the situation progresses.


Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Rational Choice Explanations for Human Rights Treaties
Let me just offer a quick additional reflection on the question of whether rational choice theory may help explain the conundrum of why states sign human rights treaties.

The easiest explanation is when the human rights commitment is bundled together with other provisions in a treaty, and the cost of making the human rights commitment is offset by other benefits derived from the treaty. The Helsinki Accords are the obvious example, with the USSR receiving significant benefits from provisions such as the territorial integrity of States, while committing itself to respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms. The rational choice explanation is obvious within the confines of the treaty itself.

Most human rights treaties are not of this nature. As for free-standing human rights treaties, a rational choice assumption would be that the cost of adhering to a human rights treaty must be offset by some greater good external to the treaty. Two possibilities come to mind, one international and the other domestic. In some cases, a country may wish to sign a human rights treaty to procure some greater international benefit. For example, the choice of some eastern European countries to sign the European Convention on Human Rights can be explained by their desire to secure admission to the European Union. And of course, foreign aid is often conditioned on adherence to human rights treaties. It is quite rational for developing countries to make human rights commitments for the sake procuring foreign aid.

In other cases the benefit may have nothing to do with international relations. If I understand Andrew correctly from his last post, he assumes that the internalization of a norm is a departure from rational choice assumptions. I’m not sure this is correct. I would think that a state could make the rational choice to suffer the cost of adhering to a human rights treaty in order to secure a domestic benefit. The 1965 Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination is a good example. CEDR was pushed through the General Assembly by a majority bloc of newly-independent developing countries from Africa and Asia. But there is a rational choice explanation for why the United States quickly came on board: the international cost of adherence was offset by a domestic benefit. The Johnson Administration was under intense domestic pressure from the civil rights movement to show progress on racial equality, and adherence to an international treaty was one such clear signal.

Rational choice explanations of international law cannot divorce international costs from domestic benefits. All that matters is that there is some rational explanation for why states make international commitments. The explanation may be of a horizontal nature between nations, or of a vertical nature within the state itself.


Saturday, February 9, 2008

Mapping the Evolution of States and Empires
The bloggers at Coming Anarchy have put together an informative series of posts about the shifting borders of states and empires. There’s a time-lapse animation of the expansion and contraction of Rome and Byzantium, a series of maps for each of Ethiopia, Poland, Armenia , Persia, and Russia. Also, there’s a series of comparative maps on state borders in modern Europe.

Along similar lines (and in light of current events), I would also recommend Catholicgauze's post on the ethnic geography of Kosovo.

Since a picture is worth a thousand words, I am in favor of the "geographic turn" in international law, in which we as lawyers become more sensitive to issues of space and place, and how our represenations of them affect the rules that we make. And vice versa. Reflecting on his travels through the Caucasus, Northern Iraq, and West Africa, journalist Robert Kaplan noted in his book The Coming Anarchy (from where the blog got its name) that he “develop[ed] a healthy skepticism toward maps, which, I began to realize, create a conceptual barrier that prevents us from comprehending the political crack-up just beginning to occur worldwide.”

For some examples of recent scholarship in law and geography, see, for example, the articles of Hari Osofsky and Tim Zick. Hari blogged about law and geography here. I also have a forthcoming piece in the Oregon Review of International Law on how geographic and cartographic concepts have affected our understanding of self-determination and secession. More on that in another post.

For now, check out the maps!

Hat tip: Catholicgauze

Related Posts (on one page):

  1. Mapping the Future of the Middle East
  2. Mapping the Evolution of States and Empires

Friday, February 8, 2008

Final Thoughts
Once again, thanks to Roger Alford and everyone else involved with Opinio Juris for a rich discussion and an excellent example of how the Internet can facilitate in-depth exchanges.

I wrote God and Gold hoping to set off a conversation about some important and often uncomfortable truths:

that the modern world has developed under the auspices of an ever growing and deepening system of politics, culture, economics and ideology rooted in capitalist social organization and Anglo-American power;

that this long era of Anglo-American predominance in world affairs rests in large part on a unique cultural fit between those societies and the challenges of rapid capitalist development;

that this cultural fit is best understood in the light of a dynamic religious sensibility that infuses both orthodox and heterodox religious faith in the Anglo-American world;

that this religious sensibility continues to shape the perceptions and values of secular as well as religious people in the United States today;

that both the cultural and the geopolitical conditions of today’s world seem favorable to the continuation of the “American era” in world affairs well into the present century;

that much of the world objects to various features of this international system and that these objections are often deeply rooted in cultural and political preferences which will not easily or quickly be changed (and which in any case many people want to preserve);

that the Anglo-Americans are not and often have not been wise, generous or just in their use of the power they’ve achieved;

that the very cultural qualities which have helped make the Anglo-Americans so strong tend to blind them to certain important features of the emerging world system;

that the accelerating social and technological changes which liberal capitalism promotes are simultaneously liberating and destabilizing;

that while it is impossible to predict where all this is heading, humanity seems fated to continue along this path.

At least from where I sit this does not look like a triumphalist message. I respect the power of Whig optimism to shape world affairs, but I cannot share the easy optimism that the Whig tradition promotes. My own view of the future is a bit darker and more Delphic than the intoxicating and enticing visions of a peaceful, stable and democratic world order resting on capitalism and the rule of law which so many British and American observers have thought they discerned during the last couple of centuries. I honestly do not know where all this will end, and I am sometimes staggered at the perils we face.

In the end I do share the Abrahamic faith that all the turmoil and trauma of human history will lead to something greater and richer than anything we now know, but I suspect that the consummation of history will be something more unsettling and unexpected than a peaceful and easy transition to the Paradise of Whigs.